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Prediction for CME (2025-10-12T14:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-10-12T14:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41710/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] CME seen to the NE in STEREO A COR2 only and likely not seen in SOHO LASCO and GOES CCOR-1 coronagraphs, possibly since it overlaps with a couple of preceding CMEs, including 2025-10-12T14:23Z CME. Its source could be the C9.6 flare in AR 4246 (N22W10) peaking at 2025-10-12T13:50Z and an associated eruption with dimming to the SE of this Active Region, best seen in STEREO A EUV 195 after 2025-10-12T13:30Z, also seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. The CME partially overlaps with the more northern (as seen in STEREO A COR2), 2025-10-12T14:23Z CME, which may be associated with the dimming to the NW of this Active Region after 2025-10-12T13:30Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-15T14:22Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/41714/1
Model Inputs:
2025-10-12T14:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=1.0, Lat.=33.0, Speed=448.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2025-10-12T22:06Z
2025-10-12T14:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=10.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=409.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2025-10-12T22:28Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-10-15T14:22Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =9.1 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.9
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-15T08:23Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-14T09:04Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-16T00:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251012_220700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251012_220700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251012_220700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251012_220700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251012_220700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251012_220700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251012_220700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251012_220700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251012_220700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251012_220700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251012_220700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251012_220700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251012_220700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251012_220700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251012_220700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 63.17 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2025-10-12T23:12Z

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